Circle of decisive moments in international relations is around 30 years if we look since Vienna Congress in 1815. Revolutions in 1848 followed, Germany and Italy emerging in 1871, then 1914, 1939, 1962, 1989. Really not a circle but a time’s arrow, as physics is teaching us, and mentioned historical disturbances could be seen as the collapse of the wave function.
We are living at the end of the last 30-years period and new collapse can be expected. Last year's attack on the US Capitol can be defined as a final point of the unipolar global system. New system is needed. In the Indo-Pacific it is unfolding, Quad is reborn, AUKUS born, Australia and Japan signed a new defence pact.
Referring to the series of Russian-Western negotiations starting on Monday, Ivo Daalder, President of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, former US Permanent Representative on the Council of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, in Foreign Affairs wrote: “Talks should focus on rebuilding the European security structure that emerged from the first Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, held in Helsinki in 1975.”
Since Russia on December, 17, published drafts of two agreements on security guarantee - with US and NATO - a wave of criticism flushed Western public. Mainly missing an important point revealed in the Kremlin press release after the Biden-Putin conversation on December, 31: “The conversation focused on the implementation of the agreement to launch negotiations on providing Russia with legally binding security guarantees, reached during the December 7 video conference.” It was not a Russian out of the blue strike, it is a part of the Biden - Putin agreement.
According to intelligence agency Stratfor, “the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has opened up the potential for future militant activity in Central Asia that could spill into Russia”. Published the day before unrest started in Kazakhstan.
Moscow contends with a China that is both a necessary strategic partner and a challenger for Eurasian hegemony, Stratfor continues, and the Far East became a strategic theatre for Russia as well.
“This is a contest for Eurasia—and thus for the world”, wrote Seth Cropsey, naval officer and former deputy undersecretary of the Navy in the Wall Street Journal.
New security architecture for Europe is an imperative, INF, The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and CFE, Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, are abolished, as French President Emmanuel Macron stressed recently.
The US can count on Rome, Berlin and Paris support for new European security architecture, Poland and Baltics will follow the US as always in safety issues.
“I think Europe must have a dialogue with Russia”, Macron confirmed.
The West should not agree on all Russian demands, but discussion is the best way for a common and indivisible security space from Lisbon to Vladivostok with the crucial word - reciprocity. Aligned with responsibility, respect, repercussion.
That has to be the main aim of the EU and NATO. Well, the EU is not at the table. Yes, it is not a security actor. And it can not blame anybody but itself.