The worst forecasts have been issued by the Economic Institute (1.9%); their CEIZ index indicates a significant slowdown compared to the two previous quarter,s when GDP grew at a rate of 2.5 and 2.9 percent, respectively.
Fluctations
The main reasons for the noticeable decline in economic activity, they say, are the lower value-added tax revenue, compared to the previous months, and the fall in industrial production. Positive contribution to the index, on the other hand, came from the retailing, 'especially tourism, which saw an increase in the number of tourist arrivals by 10.7 percent in September', says the Institute report.
Eight macroeconomists who took part in the Hina news agency poll, however, are more optimistic. Their estimates range between 2.2 and 2.5 percent (the average is 2.3 percent) — but they also point to a slowdown in the economy. This is more or less expected given the apparent collapse of industrial production, which fell by 1.5 percent in the third quarter compared to the same period last year. It is mainly due to the crisis in shipbuilding and large oscillations in the other industries. It decreased by 0.3 percent in the first nine months of this year. One of the economists in the survey attributed this to 'a slowdown in the industries of our main trading partners and the weakening in the processing industry sector', but the unresolved domestic weaknesses nevertheless seem to be the biggest problem.
Demand
The growth of the economy continues to rely on personal consumption and tourism, but the results are weaker than last year in those segments, too. Retail trade volume in the third quarter is about three percent higher than in the same period last year, which is the slowest growth rate of retail sales since the end of 2015.
Growth of the export of goods was another positive influence on the economy, primarily thanks to the increased demand from the EU market, but here, too, there are signs of faltering. In the first nine months of this year, exports increased by 4 percent while imports rose at the 6.1-percent rate. The foreign trade deficit thus increased.